Showing posts with label Prioritize. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Prioritize. Show all posts

Thursday, April 4, 2013

Prioritizing Communications & Energy

Two Sectors to Fix




Shyam Ponappa  | April 4, 2013

After curbing unproductive expenditure and imports, we must focus on developing communications and energy


A difficult aspect of addressing our economy, apart from necessary firefighting, is that of prioritisation, whether it is through organisation (or reorganisation), management and execution, or all these combined with policy reforms. With infrastructure growing for years at only about half the rate that gross domestic product has, crisis and turmoil are inevitable without systemic remedies. How should the authorities address the many deficiencies if our need is comprehensive, integrated improvement in systems?

Prerequisite: control expenses
First, a caveat: meta-processes such as managing cash flows and the balance of imports to exports, our most urgent problems, must be dealt with as a prerequisite. Giving out more cash than receipts has to stop. Many countries have come to grief on welfare spending before they could afford it, and no one has found a magical way out. India is not likely to find one either, so we do have to end this unsustainable indulgence. Second, hard as it is, without investment in capacity augmentation and system building, we cannot escape the cycle of deficiencies and crises. If we can get help from the International Monetary Fund now, that's what we should seek, and use it judiciously.

Communications and energy
Communications is a compelling priority, because of the bang for the buck it provides, compounded by correcting past mistakes. Other infrastructure deficiencies, while equally critical or even more so - think energy, water, sanitation and transportation - require much more by way of capital, human resources, and organisation, and generally do not yield as much return as quickly. Also, other sectors often require co-ordinated action by state and local governments in concert with the central government.

There are areas that need central policy correctives, too. For energy, an urgent requirement is a solar energy policy to induce the spread of equipment. The policy should include tax rebates and the concept of Net Energy Metering, as in California, that facilitates selling excess power to the grid. In the US, for instance, of the new capacity commissioned in 2012, nearly half was from renewable energy - of which 40 per cent was from wind, with a substantial share from solar. We have to find a balance between the inducements that led to overbuilding in Spain and our own backward-leaning policies, as we have abundant sunshine that is not adequately used as well as high energy imports. Italy, Spain and Australia are apparently close to price parity in solar and conventional fuels; perhaps there's scope for selective adaptation of some of their policies.

The difficulty with communications alone, however, is evident from the growth of mobile telephony in India. The proliferation of networks and equipment with the need for standby generation because of unreliable grid power has resulted in:
  • higher oil imports for diesel for generating electricity;
  • a multiplicity of networks, towers and radio transmission equipment, with substantial investments in spectrum, resulting in a huge drain on capital, in addition to the environmental impact of excessive materials used, high electromagnetic radiation, and a blight on the urban landscape.
Energy for communications


According to a recent statement in Parliament, the annual diesel consumption in 585,000 towers is estimated at over five billion litres. This underscores the need to develop our own approach to the whole range of requirements, from network architecture and organisation to equipment, even as we re-evaluate how to provide countrywide broadband access. The existing paradigms will result in escalating capital cost, operating expenses, and fuel import patterns that are unsustainable.

Our approach to voice and data communications itself has to evolve. In a way, communications services are an enabler and force-multiplier for other infrastructure, providing a framework and facilitation for structured development. Also, if a systematic approach that serves our needs evolves for this sector, it could provide a template for integrated, goal-directed development of other sectors, starting with the verticals to deliver reliable power to users.

This undertaking is especially complex in India because of our fragmented organisational structure, with no apparent co-ordination mechanism. Another aspect of the problem is reflected in this quotation from a McKinsey report: “Delays in building ‘hard’ infrastructure often stem from a lack of ‘soft’ infrastructure, such as educated, skilled workers with project-management capabilities.”*  There is also a lack of effective institutions and processes for the organisation and management of human and material resources. For instance, fuels such as coal and oil are under different ministries; power generation and distribution, alternative energy and nuclear energy are all separate ministries, as are the railways that transport coal, while another ministry evaluates the environmental impact. Nothing is going to work if each one acts independently without co-ordinating with the others. It’s as though we have not understood the importance of organisation and co-ordination to achieve results, or are consciously ignoring this in an opportunistic free-for-all.

Finding our own way


Google Chairman Eric Schmidt observed recently that India lagged behind the rest of the world in adopting the Web services model and in harnessing the power of the internet, attributing this to failure to invest in high-speed networks, perhaps through complacency because of a strong IT sector. While this could be interpreted as self-serving, our needs would be very well served if the authorities focused on correcting this through policies that induce private sector investment in networks and service delivery, in data centres, and in terrestrial links to supplement our submarine cables. In communications, as in other sectors, we have to fashion our own way because cut-and-paste solutions won’t work, as the contexts are too different. We must explicitly address developing local data centres; terrestrial links with other countries, if feasible; our own designs for rural broadband including common facilities, with efficient, low-powered elements to the extent possible; use renewable energy; explore small-cell architecture in urban settings; and devise policies that facilitate investment in ubiquitous internet access, including spectrum reforms like allocating more bandwidth for Wi-Fi. It would be in our interest to focus on doing what it takes to achieve top-tier Web services in the next five to 10 years.

                                                                                               shyamponappa at gmail dot com

*“Can India lead the mobile-Internet revolution?”
Laxman Narasimhan, February 2011
https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Marketing/Digital_Marketing/Can_India_lead_the_mobile-Internet_revolution_2746

Thursday, April 10, 2008

A Wish List for India's Dream Team




Shyam Ponappa / May 04, 2006


What do you wish the dream team would do now?

Define goals, plan, prioritize, phase -- in unison.

As the unshackling of the economy and external factors combine to generate economic momentum, India is set to grow strongly despite constraints, including outdated legislation and regulations. Momentum is building as in the Roaring Twenties in America. Momentum is mass multiplied by velocity, not just the strength of stock price movements. And velocity combines speed with direction; it is not only the rate of circulation of money. So, nothing mars the prospect … except the crises from so many disparate causes, such as unsupported small farms trying to turn commercial without the scale or resources, triggered by events such as the failure of rains in Andhra, or the opposite: an overabundant onion harvest in Maharashtra. There are other crises, too, e.g. urban chaos, the ructions from oil prices, and the spectre of continuing conflict from nihilists of any persuasion inflicting terror.

A warning to learn from history and the Roaring Twenties. Those excesses led to the collapse of markets and the necessity for the creation of institutions such as the Securities & Exchange Commission. Sebi’s recent strictures against 24 market intermediaries underline the need for systemic solutions.

So, one aspect of the “Requirements Definition” is to be watchful for asset bubbles, stock and commodity scams, and rent-seeking—attempts to seek economic gain without reciprocal wealth creation, including tax evasion and corruption. This means developing systems and procedures that are institutionally sound, as well as peopled by competent individuals with integrity (difficult, but possible?). What might be other important aspects of the Requirements Definition?

Goal Setting: After Informed Consideration

The setting of priorities and goal definition needs inputs with the requisite expertise. This means going beyond the charmed circle of economists, civil servants, academics, and politicians. It needs the practical perspectives of the managers/organisers, engineers, and financiers, who create enterprises or the conditions to build them, and make projects work.
It means a meeting of minds on a small set of the most important (critical) objectives. By definition, the emphasis is on “a small set”, because “critical” lists that are long laundry lists are useless for galvanising action and achievement. Prioritisation has to be applied, and the small set has to converge to be achievable, not be divergent or contradictory.

Therefore, the first item on my wish list is for the Dream Team to do more informed, explicit goal setting.

Speak with one voice

The following instances of divergence show how mixed messages can be, even though well-intentioned:


Manufacturing & services: PM Manmohan Singh reportedly said at the Asia Society Conference in March at Mumbai: “… there has been a relative neglect of manufacturing in India in recent years ... we have unveiled ten-year national manufacturing initiatives. Emphasis will be placed on labour-intensive sectors ... focused attention would be given to the growth of India’s dynamic services sector ...”


No Budget support for services: Meanwhile, FM Chidambaram said on TV after his Budget presentation that services were doing well enough, so the government did not need to do more for them in this year’s Budget.



Agriculture top priority: Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia reportedly said at the Mumbai conference, “... development of agriculture would remain the top priority of the government.” To be fair, he added that nothing was possible without adequate infrastructure.

Recognising the need for political statements, nitpicking armchair critics, etc., this highlights one requirement of leaders: convergent objectives and priorities stated clearly with one voice. True, several objectives can be pursued in parallel, but the clearer the priorities, plans, and phasing, the better the chances of achieving them. Therefore, it would help immensely if the government addressed these and articulated its position consistently.

Teamwork & Organisation

Most of us recognise that teamwork and organisation can achieve far more than individual brilliance. This is not because there is less impact from external factors and circumstances beyond the group’s control, but more from better management of the factors within the group’s control. Without teamwork and organisation, we are back to “herding cats”.


Teamwork requires open-minded listening to views/disciplines other than one’s own, and developing an informed consensus. It does not require accepting all opinions, nor withholding one’s own. It does require a receptive stance (respect for other views), the willingness to engage on group objectives, and to accommodate to domain knowledge that goes beyond one’s own, and the willingness to be educated.


Organisation: The essential process is detailed next steps, spelling out tasks, funding, material, people, time and effort (resources), with time lines and responsibilities. The emphasis: build institutions with systematic processes, not around personalities.

Prioritisation and Phasing



Prioritisation: The critical leadership function is to prioritise matters, based on inputs on objectives, resources, and efficiency (see illustrative examples below).


Integrated phasing—A “Balloon” approach: The level of resources and capabilities at India’s stage of development will always be short of its needs. Where we have erred is in building one aspect, e.g. Jawaharlal Nehru Port (JNPT), without addressing the entire system, leaving bottlenecks. Instead, we could plan and upgrade in a limited way along the entire chain (like an under-inflated, large balloon) while leaving scope for expanding to full capacity over time (the full balloon), e.g., Curzon Road/Kasturba Gandhi Marg in Delhi and not South Extension, at a simplified level.

Examples: Possible Applications


Input intensity in agriculture: A study in 1998 reported that agriculture needs higher inputs of infrastructure compared to other sectors.* If this is still true, the need is for strategic changes towards “smart agriculture”, rather than more funding to perpetuate the original inefficiencies.


Energy intensity: A Planning Commission report states that India’s energy intensity at 0.19 kg of oil equivalent per dollar of GDP (PPP; Brazil’s is 0.15) can be reduced by 25%.** But how do we achieve this? The Planning Commission needs to spell this out through execution plans with associated financing.


Strategy & operating plans with financing (Budgets): The successful private-sector approach to large projects is to first set objectives, then develop a strategy, then an operating plan with the financing, and finally execute well. Perhaps the government could do these steps better. The point is not that fund allocation is unimportant, but that (a) good plans and (b) the use of funds (good execution) are most important.



* ‘Energy And Infrastructure Needs In India: An Input-Output Analysis’, Roy & Mukhopadyay, 1998: http://www.inforumweb.umd.edu/WorkPaper/IOPAP/joy1.pdf


** ‘Draft Report of the Expert Committee on Integrated Energy Policy Integrated Energy Policy-Draft Report’, December 2005:

http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/genrep/intengpol.pdf