Showing posts with label game theory. Show all posts
Showing posts with label game theory. Show all posts

Thursday, August 3, 2023

Overview - Topics and Articles

 Latest Article:

The Case For Staying With Ethanol 10

Ethanol blending over 10 per cent may be desirable but a full understanding of its environmental and economic impacts is crucial.

Shyam Ponappa  August 3, 2023



Shyam Ponappa on ResearchGate

Comprehensive, Integrated Strategy & Execution
India has been coasting along on a post-feudal-colonial mélange of currents and tides, with the brigandage of opportunistic politics fed by our (the voters’) greed for short-term benefits. The result is grotesque populism and corruption, in lieu of the deferred gratification of pleasing cities and countryside with the appurtenances of proper governance: sidewalks and drains, toilets, transport, administration and order, hospitals and schools.

We have to organize and manage ourselves, “engineer” our way ahead, taking steps to build and develop our solutions, building systems and processes, and not just wait for things to happen. We need a comprehensive and integrated, systemic, silo-busting, problem-solving approach.

This applies across the board in the broadest “spatial planning” sense that integrates housing and land use at all levels with commercial, industrial, cultural, scientific and educational activity, transportation, and all governance and infrastructure: water, sewerage, energy, communications, basic health and education. Infrastructure being the first level of enablement is
 the essential starting point.


Previously, India’s leaders acknowledged that infrastructure is India’s great need. Yet, they took no steps [exception: NTP-2011 in October, 2011] to marshal forces to draw up a credible strategy and execution plan. This is what needed and needs doing. Only good intentions and/or money won’t do, because delivery systems and processes have to be developed, i.e., planned, and built from scratch.

It looks like the NDA II will seriously address the development of enabling infrastructure.  A beginning on a long way ahead.  The next few months will demonstrate the resolve of the NDA II to really break the mould and get the job done.

- July 2014

And it got worse for Digital India with another spectrum auction [March 2015] and the attendant deprivation of network rollout and service delivery. 

...And worse: another auction with Rs. 109,000 crore (~$17.6 billion). - April 2015

... And yet worse, as another auction reduced investment by over Rs. 65,000  crore  (~$10 billion). - October 2016

... And annual auctions threatened from 2017! - March 2017

Lack of integrated systems and controls led to the worst bank fraud in India - PNB $2 billion - February 2018  And IL&FS - September 2018

The National Digital Communications Policy 2018 is only an aspirational statement - October 4, 2018

Big bang for Wi-Fi!  5 GHz regulations similar to the US FCC. - October 2018

As the sector stalls, government talks 5G spectrum auction, wanting more cash while the industry drowns in debt. - January 2021  

The Supreme Court reverses previous rulings in favour of telecom operators on retroactive charges for spectrum based on an all-inclusive definition of Adjusted Gross Revenues continues...

Another ill-advised auction - March 2021.  And another monumental failure, neither serving the government's cash needs (too much left on the table), nor the consumers (too much spectrum left untouched).

A reversal (FINALLY!) of the retroactive tax amendment affecting Vodafone, Cairn, and others - August 5, 2021.

Spectrum Usage Charge zeroed; past due demands being reconsidered? - October 7, 2021

5G Spectrum Auction July 2022 nets Rs. 1.5 lakh crore (about $19 billion), making that amount of capital unavailable for investment in networks.  Allocation of an even larger amount to reviving BSNL and MTNL increases uncertainty of outcomes.



Thursday, January 6, 2022

Moving Beyond A Zero-Sum Approach


In many situations, acting for oneself as well as the group gets the best results.

Shyam Ponappa   |   January 6, 2022

The start of the year is a good time to consider getting past fractiousness. For this purpose, insights and concepts from Game Theory when applied to most interactions in daily living are truly astounding. One major insight is that barring conflict and competitive games and sports, in recurring, purposeful interactions between people and entities, the interests of parties dealing with one another are often not diametrically opposed, even when there is competition between them. The implication is that one party’s gain in an interaction need not be entirely at the other’s cost. These are the non-zero-sum situations that lend themselves to cooperation and collaboration. In these circumstances, the best outcomes arise when parties do what is best for themselves as well as the group. Paradoxically, if parties act only in their own interests, ignoring the potential for collective gains, the outcomes often are short of optimal. Whereas if parties cooperate and collaborate in a convergent way, optimal outcomes are possible.

The difficulty is that this philosophy is apparently at odds with our processes and practices in politics, governance, and administration, which seem to emphasise dissension, divisiveness, and factionalism. This appears to be true to some extent in civil society. Is it possible to have these dichotomous approaches flourish simultaneously in any society? Perhaps not. Yet, for galvanising major change, the convergence of society and a transformation towards cooperative and collaborative culture are imperative.

Non-Zero-Sum Situations & Potential For Gains

This concept is usually presented as numbers in tables with rows and columns and associated mathematical formulas as shown in Chart 1, 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordination_game

For formulas: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperative_game_theory

but it can also be presented graphically as in Chart 2.  

Chart 2


Visual representations are sometimes more intuitively understandable. Take for example, corporate acquisition with cooperation and coordination. Consider two companies with complementary strengths, negotiating for one to acquire a stake in the other. The example could be of a manufacturer buying a stake in a supplier for existing or new markets, or diversifying into a new market. The Acquirer A in Chart 2 wishes to pay no more than a reasonable price, shown as a reduction in the asking price as one moves to the right on the horizontal axis. The Seller S wishes to limit the percentage stake sold along the vertical axis with its relinquishment of control, while obtaining a sizeable investment to enhance its capacity. If both sides stick to their “indicated” and “offered” prices at or near the origin, N, the transaction would mean a low investment for a low stake, which would be least beneficial for both. Neither party can improve its position independently from this low-value equilibrium, known as the Nash or Non-Cooperative Equilibrium.

Goal: Stable Cooperative Equilibrium

Any point on the chart towards the right or the top gives both higher gains, although only some will be acceptable to both. The Acquirer gains with less reduction in acquired shares (lower on the vertical axis) for a given investment. Its responses are shown on the line NA (A’s “response function”) extending to the top right. The Acquirer’s preferred price is at the point labelled Acquirer’s Bliss Point. The Seller gains as the stake sold for that price is reduced, up to its ideal Bliss Point, shown on its response function NS. Indifference curves radiate from each Bliss Point, and the points where these curves touch each other (are tangential) represent acceptable settlement points. The line through these points is the acceptable Contract Curve, and the actual settlement point on this curve depends on the negotiation. Any settlement point gives the Acquirer a higher price cut than at N, while the Seller gives up less shares than at N. Both gain.

This is all nice and utopian, but is it of any practical use? The chart shows that objective analysis can highlight the potential for better payoffs, whereas efforts to maximise selfish gains while ignoring common interests results in the lowest payoffs (Nash Equilibrium).  That is, in non-zero-sum situations, if players cooperate, any coordinated settlement will be better for both than the Nash Equilibrium. 

Game Theory has its limitations, of course, and some question its basic legitimacy because of assumptions not related to this example, such as rational decision-making, with complete knowledge and understanding. For practical applications in group functioning and processes, however, its principles and concepts relating to cooperation are invaluable. There are also a number of other real-world applications, such as for matching medical residents with hospitals in the USA through the National Resident Matching Program,1 shared railway infrastructure costs in Europe, or the brilliant Spliddit.org not-for-profit portal, for apps to help users allocate costs or profits in instances such as sharing rent, fares, credit, goods, and tasks. The benefits of collective action begin with cooperation, or acting with others in one’s own interests. It extends with collaboration, or acting with others on collective goals.

These simple principles can be learned through methods in experiential learning, which employ cooperation and collaborative learning methods. They can be grasped and internalised by young children as well as by adults.2 In this sense, this approach can be facilitated throughout people’s lifetimes. While it is undoubtedly beneficial to learn these in early childhood, people can be introduced to it later, in college or at work, and still learn and apply it well. Given its potential for a cultural transformation, it needs national and state championing through dedicated effort, and a curriculum to inculcate these practices in everyone, from early kindergarten to high-school and beyond, through college and Continuing Education at work and in life.

Without transforming society from a neutral or contentious to a collaborative stance, expecting public-private-partnerships to work is unrealistic. Communications systems enable widespread introduction of these changes, with relevant skilling and training as never before. The question is whether we can step up to the opportunity.


Shyam (no space) Ponappa at gmail dot com


1. National Resident Matching Program, USA: https://www.nrmp.org

Railways Infrastructure – Europe: http://dm.udc.es/profesores/ignacio/gptren160499.pdf

Cost or profit allocation for rent, fares, credit, goods, and tasks: http://www.spliddit.org/

2. Collaborative Experiential  Learning - Indicative Article: 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327527752_New_Methods_for_Collaborative_Experiential_Learning_to_Provide_Personalised_Formative_Assessment


Thursday, November 5, 2020

List of Articles with Hyperlinks



1 FX Reserves & Infrastructure

[Finance/Economics]


3 Learning from Our Champions
[Goals, Tasks & Project Management
4 Organizing Aviation (Competition, Open Skies ...and Bust?)
[System (Re)building: Organization & Systems] 


5 Organizing: Biofuels (More Energy for Ethanol and Biodiesel!)
[System (Re)building: Organization & Systems] 


6 Thinking Big - Scale, Ownership & Results
[System (Re)building: Organization & Systems]

[System (Re)building: Organization & Systems]


9 Organizing PSU's: Performance is the Key
[System (Re)building: Organization & Systems]


11 Safeguarding India's Capital
[Finance/Economics]

[Goals, Tasks & Project Management]

15 Organizing Renewables- Next Steps for Biofuels)
[System (Re)building: Organization & Systems]

16 An Investment Fund for India
[Finance/Economics]

18 Tata's Corus Buy-A Game Theory Analysis
[Game Theory: Collaborative Gains]


20 Productivity & Regulatory Constraints (Opportunities for the Left)
[System (Re)building: Framework & Principles]

Friday, November 7, 2014

(Fixing) India's Systemic Flaws


We need breakthroughs in tax claims and coal and spectrum allocation, but most of all, in societal accord


On the face of it, several developments augur well for the economy. But major systemic flaws persist that must be overcome.

Some gains have resulted from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's direct selling and "heavy lifting", as in eliciting Japanese investments. Others, such as the drop in petroleum and commodity prices, are attributable to extraneous factors. The positive developments that seem to be coalescing into a glow on the economic horizon include:
  • The revival of stalled projects.
     
  • A reduction in raw material costs, with oil prices now well under $90 a barrel.
     
  • Significant investments from Japan's SoftBank in Snapdeal and Ola; other significant investments and announcements in e-commerce, for example, Flipkart and Amazon.
     
  • The implementation of electronic toll collection (ETC) on our highways. Introduced between Ahmedabad and Vadodara on National Highway 8 (NH-8) in 2013, the ETC became available last week between Delhi and Mumbai on NH-8. It is expected to be available on all national highways in the next two months. Vehicles with prepaid tags can drive through without slowing down, whereas until now, all vehicles had to stop to pay tolls. The productivity gains will be enormous, with fuel savings across toll stations estimated at Rs 60,000 crore (see BS, October 30, 2014 and BS, October 31, 2014 for details).

But all is not entirely well. The fiscal deficit is at 80 per cent of what was budgeted for the full year; there was a decline in projects completed in the September quarter; and there is uncertainty about growth rates.

The real issue, though, is that major systemic flaws persist, resulting in growing economic and operating constraints. There are the problems of retrospective tax claims, of coal allocation and of spectrum allocation. In the societal dimension, there are continuing indications of disharmony, resulting in wariness and insecurity about whether we have a unifying or divisive top leadership, let alone rank and file. Proceeding with business as usual with the present ineffective ways will lead to continuing and increasingly overwhelming detrimental effects. Each of these areas needs breakthroughs to achieve convergent, synergistic results.

Coal

Over 60 per cent of stalled projects tracked by the Performance Management Group in the Cabinet secretariat are power projects, held up because coal is not available. Coal-mining rights are to be auctioned on the lines of spectrum. What are the likely outcomes?

While the government was jubilant about funds collected from the auctions, this created enormous capital and operating constraints for the communications sector. This is because the Rs 1.05 lakh crore bid for spectrum became unavailable for network construction and operations, and the limited bandwidth available to each operator adds to costs and restricts delivery capability. Growth in network capacity has deteriorated to the point where we have higher levels of dropped calls in metros, with continuing poor broadband access countrywide. The effects on productivity are ruinous.

What can we expect from mining rights auctions? If the results are as for the spectrum auctions, we'll have high treasury collections, high life-cycle project costs affecting critical inputs like electricity, steel and aluminium, and a reduction in investment in mining operations and downstream manufacturing. These are logical outcomes: the consequence of higher costs is either higher prices, or financial under-recovery leading to collapse, and capital used for auctions is unavailable for investment. Instead, what we really want from the mining allocation is inexpensive electricity and efficient production of industrial materials, such as steel and aluminium.

The financial insolvency of our state electricity boards reflects the magnitude of the problem. Even the story of Gujarat's electricity distribution raises questions for the rest: Gujarat's average farm tariff is under Rs 1 a unit, compared with a non-farm tariff of Rs 4-5 (see "Farmers pay 56 paise per unit of electricity"*). The high cost of providing these connections is unviable with the low revenue of 56 paise a unit. This is why there is a backlog of about 400,000 farmers waiting for connections despite Gujarat's "surplus" of over 2,000 megawatts. Distributing electricity at such low rates is simply unsustainable, and the situation is much worse in states providing free electricity.

A possible way to approach this is to appoint two or three individuals with the integrity and competence to work with the government, industry and experts to develop an allocation plan. If this "beauty-parade" approach seems too utopian or academic for India, please be aware that this is precisely how land acquisition was actually done for the Calcutta Metro around 1982 after years of delay, and for part of the Bangalore Metro in 2006.

Spectrum

The spectrum constraints, meanwhile, show in the high levels of dropped calls because of congested lines, and the slow rollout of networks into rural areas. This slowness is because of the unfavourable economics: of high cost and difficult execution, with lower revenue potential. What we want from spectrum allocation is access to broadband networks at prices that will result in productivity gains. Instead, we have neither adequate broadband networks, nor sufficiently widespread access for productivity. A better solution is pooled networks with mandatory shared access on payment, with the government getting a share of revenues.

Ecosystems

Apart from inadequate infrastructure, logistics, finance and regulations, all of which must be well-orchestrated to achieve supportive ecosystems for investment and operations, the tax-claims fallout continues to undermine growth prospects. While the Vodafone problem may be finally resolved, the closure of Nokia's manufacturing facility in Chennai because of tax claims undercuts all the sales talk. Each sector needs a supportive ecosystem, integrated with the rest.

Social Disharmony

Above all, social disharmony seriously affects our capacity for collective action. Social coherence is essential for constructive development. The leadership's effectiveness in reaching out and inspiring constructive aspirations can help to harmonise and channel citizens towards desirable common goals. Such collective initiatives would reduce our fractiousness and infighting, making win-win outcomes more possible.

The solutions in all these areas need to be path-breaking, based on integrity, trust and bold, collaborative action. We have to learn these ways.






                                                                              Shyam (nospace) Ponappa at gmail dot com

*http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/ahmedabad/farmers-pay-56-paise-per-unit-of-electricity/

Comments (2):

  • karthikeyan
    Tax Havens can be created , for NOKIA alikes ?? :)
  • ashok
    The state of the power sector can make or break Make In India. Worthy of attention at the highest levels of government. 2. Whether spectrum or coal, the government can meet the industry half way by taking its entitlement as a revenue stream rather than an initial lump of capital.


Friday, January 3, 2014

A Constructive Agenda for the AAP [Arvind Kejriwal]


Despite missteps, Arvind Kejriwal and his party could move beyond an attacking strategy to improve our polity


The turn of events that catapulted Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to power in  may have flabbergasted them as much as anyone else. It might all fizzle out if they take a hard line, following the vengeful path they espoused during their campaign, thereby losing the chance to govern with outside support. But what if they take a more constructive approach? If they govern at least for some time, it could seed some real improvement. At best, acting responsibly in the public interest while eschewing the populism that has worked so far, they could become a major party. Even if the AAP is reduced to a swing vote, it could still have a salutary effect on all parties. This consideration of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats shows why.

Strengths

The AAP has attributes favouring the public interest:
  • integrity (despite some failings);
  • openness, transparency;
  • clean, transparent election funding;
  • antipathy to feudal trappings/"VIP culture";
  • belief in systems (perhaps).

Given Mr Kejriwal's engineering education, his admiration of the Delhi Metro, and his efforts to appoint officers of integrity in key positions, it is possible that integrity, rationality and a systems approach may prevail in governance. Despite anomalous manifestations on the path to power, popular pressure may now hold the AAP and its members to objective standards, besides compelling other parties and politicians to aspire to these standards. Witness Rahul Gandhi's denunciation of the ordinance to protect convicted lawmakers, or his intercession on the Adarsh Commission report (although the Bharatiya Janata Party, unfazed, is seeking electoral gains through sectarian alliances in Karnataka). The other major development is that Mr Kejriwal has emerged as a strong, charismatic leader. This factor alone, which could send the party and the man hurtling in either a positive or negative direction, is of profound importance, because we have sorely lacked such leadership.


Weaknesses

The AAP and Mr Kejriwal also have negative attributes that go against the public interest. They have displayed a defiance of established order combined with a readiness to take to the streets, and a tendency to exclude non-believers. One could argue that this is required to effect change in the face of our predatory politics. But the AAP's populist electioneering is difficult to justify except that it was a winning strategy for the party and Mr Kejriwal. Retrograde ways - such as operating through coteries, a self-righteous belief in their moral superiority, and confused socialism - are likely to end badly for them, for the public, and for the economy.

There's little evidence of systems yet. In fact, quite the contrary in their manipulative histrionics, including the reduced electricity charges and free water. Mr Kejriwal's contradictory behaviour could lead to a personality cult that subverts professionals with objectivity and integrity, and results in more anarchy. For instance, branding all tax inspectors as corrupt, or asking "honest officers" to approach him directly, thereby encouraging breaking ranks instead of instilling coherence and esprit de corps. The problem will be if these headstrong acts bankrupt and demoralise the capital.

Opportunities


Looking past the hurdles starting with a vote of confidence today, January 2, in the Assembly, establishing more realistic expectations, and so on, it is possible to conceive of the AAP taking a positive or a negative arc - a high road or a low road. So far, in getting to power, the AAP and Mr Kejriwal have excelled in attacking the establishment and criticising the government, the Opposition, and all politicians and bureaucrats. Having seized the crown of thorns by forming the government, the attacking strategy alone and destructive tactics are of no use. They must now define realistic goals, put together coalitions and workable strategies, and do what it takes to achieve them. This is very different from making dramatic, unrealistic election promises to the gullible, and playing to a headline-seeking media.

They have begun with what looks like a rash fulfilment of unreasonable promises, unless some real domain experts have looked into the finances and know undisclosed but sound ways to fund the treasury. Given their commitment to transparency, they will presumably share these financial details with the public soon. Otherwise, they are just irresponsible politicians grabbing power to loot the treasury. 


Threats

There are other worrisome legacies, too, such as the commitment to radical decentralisation and direct democracy. In practice, where these have worked, there has been intense preparation in the citizenry, as in Switzerland. Attempts at less rigorous experimentation, such as in California, destroyed the strengths of a well-developed market, bankrupting an economy about the size of India.1 There is certainly a role for local community "mohalla sabhas", but it has to develop and evolve with responsible citizenship, and leadership. 

Hopes

So what can we hope for? That Mr Kejriwal and the AAP:
  • concentrate on effective and efficient service delivery in law and order, infrastructure, ie electricity, water and sewerage, roads, transportation, and the like, and not on vindictive politics;
  • use competent people with domain expertise to address and overcome the daunting challenges in seeking a transformation;
  • define objectives with all stakeholders, and not only their concept of the "aam aadmi";
  • follow the discipline of systematic, goal-oriented flowcharts, project management, and cash flows;
  • drop populism for a social-democratic philosophy, with government as a responsible partner;
  • in terms of game theory, adopt a collaborative, community-oriented "stag hunt" approach instead of the contentious "prisoner's dilemma" model.2

The difficult transition will be to convert everyone to being responsible, law-abiding citizens, the antithesis of what we are today. Yet, the potential for clean, transparent election funding is more real because of their achievement, although much has to be done before it is realised system-wide. If they can avoid the arrogance associated with power and transition constructively on the lines indicated above, they may well succeed in bringing about radical change for the better.

                                                                             shyam no space ponappa at gmail dot com


Another relevant link:

"What's Needed Is User-Centric Design, Not Good Intentions", Shyam Ponappa, Business Standard, January 3, 2013




Comments (3):





Abraham Karammel
I have been an NRI in Germany for more than 35 years. Observing the chaotic democracy, very poor development, chronic poverty etc in my native state Kerala and my motherland India, I searched for an efficient and functioning governance system and discovered two – Singapore and Porto Alegre city of Brazil. However, Singapore’s very authoritative ‘Meritocracy’ is not practical in Kerala and India. Porto Alegre’s very systematic, self-correcting, perpetually improving, very flexible, decentralised and people-centred Participatory Budgeting (PB) is world’s best democratic governing process. It is also world’s most researched one as well. Kerala’s/India’s Local Self-government Institutions (LSGI) badly need a personality-independent, system dependent and very efficient governance process. I believe ‘Porto Alegre Innovation’ is exactly the process suitable for any village, town or city in any country. It is being adapted in more than 40 countries around the world!
  • Suresh Singh
    A very good article, I and many apolitical people in favour of cleaner politics and better governance will agree with this. The article shows a clear roadmap for the success of the new government in Delhi. Any attempt to change the system quickly can be fatal. AAP need to have a long term plan to clean up administration keeping welfare of people in mind. Secondly, there is need for inducting some sector specific professional people in the team, this is of course not to doubt the credibility and competency of the AAP leaders.
  • Trainspotter
    If AAP were a startup, CEO Kejriwal can already be judged to have hit the ball out of the park with an oversubscribed IPO. Hats off to him and his team for transitioning from a political non-entity to running Delhi within a matter months! Continuing the analogy, the task before him now is to become a sustainable organization that delivers long-term value to its stakeholders. His attacks on "VIP culture" and corruption are spot on, but his socialist economic leanings are naive at best and possibly dangerous long-term to the very aam aadmi he hopes to serve. He should take full advantage of the likes of V Balakrishnan etc. to understand the vital importance of limiting government / cutting red tape to unleash healthy markets and private competition in our economy.
  • R Varadarajan
    You have hit the nail on the head Mr Ponnappa. But I wonder whether the parties concerned would ever pay heed to such advices. They only prefer to accept those who accept their views without any doubt what so ever and all others are corrupt. The very fact that they offered frebies to catch votes has defeated the very purpose for which the party was formed. To eradicate corruption in Politics & Govt they have decided to corrupt the voters instead with freebies and concessions. As I had been stating in the past none of the polticians or Political parties are bold enough to educate the Public at large and voters that " Democracy is a RESPONSIBILITY AND NOT A RIGHT", AAP included - because such insistence on responsibility would get them votes. Thus AAP's objectives and Election manifesto seem to contradict each other.